We bring a long-running fighting on the weblog most whether Donald Trump is a disjunctive president. In other words, does he stand upward for the destination of a item political party organization (the Reagan coalition)? This label comes from the influential live of Stephen Skowronek, who analyzed the presidency inward relation to the prevailing political party organization of the day.
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 mutual topic that links the disjunctive presidents is that their political party did poorly inward the kickoff laid upward of midterm elections next their ain election. This foreshadowed their defeat for reelection ii years later. Skowronek identifies 4 disjunctive presidents (John Quincy Adams, Franklin Pierce, Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter). If you lot show the midterm elections that followed all of their victories (1826, 1854, 1930, 1978), their parties all did poorly. They did non all lose command of Congress equally a result, but the tendency was unmistakable.
We'll meet how the results inward ii weeks compare.
UPDATE: As Jack rightly pointed out to me, most Presidents meet their political party lose seats inward their kickoff midterm election. I didn't hateful to advise that solely disjunctive presidents meet meaning political party losses inward their kickoff midterm election. The indicate is that no disjunctive president led their political party to victory or fifty-fifty only a so-so consequence inward their kickoff midterm election. Consequently, if the GOP gains Senate seats inward Nov (a possibility) too holds the House (also possible), therefore that would tend to advise that the collapse of the Reagan coalition is non imminent.
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